Economic Indicators & Market Analysis

Analyze how 15 economic releases correlate with SPY performance using verified FRED release dates

GDP Growth (Quarterly)

Real Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of goods and services produced. This is the annualized quarter-over-quarter percent change.

Release: 8:30 AM ET (quarterly, ~28 days after quarter end)

Note: Comparing GDP growth to zero (positive vs negative)

Entry Price
📈 Market Open
Pre-market release
Entry Timing: For indicators released before market open (e.g., 8:30 AM ET), we enter at that day's opening price. For indicators released after market open (e.g., 10:00 AM ET), we enter at that day's closing price since you couldn't react at the open. All returns include 0.10% commission. Release dates are verified from FRED's official release calendar.

How to Interpret

Positive GDP indicates expansion, supportive for stocks. Negative GDP signals recession risk.

Methodology: We classify each release as "Positive" (> 0) or "Negative" (≤ 0). Returns for SPY are calculated from the opening price on release date, with 0.10% commission deducted.

Historical Releases & SPY Returns

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Entry: Open Price

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How to Trade the Economic Calendar

Economic indicators are statistics released by government agencies that provide insight into the economy's health and direction. This tool uses verified release dates from FRED's official release calendar—not estimated dates—to ensure accuracy.

Assets to Trade on Economic News (SPY, QQQ, Gold)

SPY (S&P 500) represents U.S. large-cap stocks. Stocks generally benefit from economic expansion—strong GDP, rising employment, and healthy consumer spending.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100) tracks large-cap tech and growth stocks. Tech is particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations since growth stocks derive more value from future earnings, which are discounted more heavily when rates rise.

GLD (Gold) is often a safe haven and inflation hedge. Gold rises when investors worry about inflation or uncertainty, but struggles when real interest rates increase (since gold pays no yield).

TLT (Long-Term Treasuries) holds 20+ year U.S. government bonds. Bond prices move inversely to rates—economic weakness (prompting Fed cuts) is bullish for TLT, while strong data is bearish.

XHB (Homebuilders) tracks homebuilder stocks. Sensitive to interest rates and economic conditions that affect housing demand.

Pre-Market vs Intraday Trading Rules

We use realistic entry timing based on when you could actually trade:

  • Pre-market releases (before 9:30 AM ET): Most major data (NFP, CPI, GDP, PPI, retail sales) is released at 8:30 AM. You can analyze before the open, so we enter at the opening price.
  • Intraday releases (after 9:30 AM ET): Data released at 10:00 AM (ISM, JOLTS, sentiment, LEI) means you missed the open reaction. We enter at the closing price.

Data Accuracy

All release dates in this tool come from FRED's official release calendar API, not from estimates or assumptions. We only include indicators where we can verify the exact historical release dates. This ensures the backtest results reflect what was actually possible to trade in real-time.

Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Economic relationships change over time. Use this tool to understand historical patterns, not as a standalone trading system.

Data Sources & Methodology

  • Economic Data: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) with verified release dates only
  • Price Data: Yahoo Finance (SPY, QQQ, GLD, TLT, XHB)
  • Entry Timing: Open price for pre-market releases, Close price for intraday releases
  • Commission: 0.10% deducted from all returns
  • Holding Periods: +3 Days, +1 Week, +1 Month, +2 Months, +3 Months
  • Indicators: 15 economic indicators with verified FRED release dates
  • Disclaimer: Past performance ≠ future results. Educational purposes only.